DEPOLARIZER: How To Conduct This E-Mail Game

Before you begin:

Select an issue for discussion. This can be a controversial subject (such as gun control). The statement of the issue should be broad enough to permit differences of opinion but specific enough to be clearly understood.
Provide a nine-point rating scale. 1 should be the most pessimistic, negative, or gloomy position. 9 should be the most optimistic, positive, or bright position.
Introduce the game through an e-mail message. Use the template below. Replace marked words, phrases, and sentences with appropriate content associated with your issue.

Template for Round 1

DEPOLARIZER: An E-mail Game by Sivasailam Thiagarajan

WHAT'S THIS? Here's a game that is also a strategy for encouraging dialogue on the Internet. It consists of five rounds. We cannot play this game unless you participate.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR YOU? You get to explore an interesting subject. You contribute your valuable ideas. You experience an interactive e-mail game that you can use with your own topics and your own participants.

ROUND 1 During this round, you indicate your position on a controversial topic on a 9-point scale.

THE TOPIC

The Future of Web-Based Training

THE RATING SCALE

The 9-point scale ranges from 1 (extremely pessimistic) to 9 (extremely optimistic).

Here is the complete scale:

extremely pessimistic
highly pessimistic
pessimistic
slightly pessimistic
neutral
slightly optimistic
optimistic
highly optimistic
extremely optimistic

YOUR TASK Send me a number that indicates your position on the rating scale. Then, if you feel like it, write a few statements to explain why you feel that way.

Send your response directly to thiagi@thiagi.com . Indicate the subject as DEPOLARIZER-Round 1.

EXAMPLES

My position: 3

Explanation: I have heard the same type of hype in the '60s about how Teaching Machines are going to revolutionize education and training. Nothing useful ever came out of it.

====

My position: 7

Explanation: For first time ever, you can receive training any time, anywhere!

DEADLINE Midnight, Thursday, June 10, 1999.

WHAT'S NEXT? I'll give you instructions for the next interesting round soon after the deadline.

THANKS! Thank you for participating.

Between Round 1 and Round 2

You will receive positions from different players, along with some explanatory statements. Copy these to a file.
Prepare a spreadsheet with participants' name (or e-mail addresses) and their positions. Find the average of these positions.
Prepare the e-mail message for Round 2, inviting players to make a prediction of the average position from Round 1. Use the template below. As before, replace marked words, phrases, and sentences with appropriate content associated with your issue and participants.

Template for Round 2

DEPOLARIZER: Round 2

WHAT'S THIS? This is the second round of the e-mail game, DEPOLARIZER.

Good News: You may join the game even if you did not participate in the first round.

This game is also a strategy for encouraging dialogue on the Internet. It consists of five rounds. This is the beginning of the second round.

WHAT SHOULD I DO? HOW DO I WIN? During the first round, 56 participants from around the world sent me their position on a 9-point scale (with 1 being extremely pessimistic and 9 being extremely optimistic) about the future of web-based training.

During this round, I want you to predict the average of these 56 ratings. Your prediction should be a number between 1 and 9, with two decimal places. For example, if you want to predict an average of 5, you should specify it as 5.00, to differentiate it from 4.99 or 5.01.

You win (this round) if your prediction is the most accurate.

RECAP OF ROUND 1 During the first round, I invited the players to indicate their position on a controversial topic on a 9-point scale.

The topic:

The Future of Web-Based Training

The rating scale ranges from 1 (extremely pessimistic) to 9 (extremely optimistic).

Here is the complete scale:

extremely pessimistic
highly pessimistic
pessimistic
slightly pessimistic
neutral
slightly optimistic
optimistic
highly optimistic
extremely optimistic

During the first round, 56 participants (beginning with Catherine MacDermott and ending with Carolyn Jayne) sent me a number that indicated their position on the rating scale. In addition, players wrote a few statements to explain why they felt that way.

DEADLINE FOR ROUND 2: 11:59 p.m., Thursday, June 17, 1999.

WHAT NEXT? I'll identify the winner and give you instructions for the intriguing third round soon after the deadline.

THANK YOU! Thank you for your participation in the first round and in this round.

Between Round 2 and Round 3

Save participants' names and predictions in a spreadsheet file. (You will probably want to create a separate file from the one you used earlier.) Create a new column to show the difference between each prediction and the actual average. (Suggestion: Use a formula like "abs(B2 - 6.23)" where 6.23 was the average from the previous round.)
Prepare an e-mail message identifying and congratulating the player who sent the most accurate prediction. Use the template given below, replacing marked phrases as before. In your message, identify runners-up, if appropriate. Provide details about the number of participants, the range of positions, and the range of predictions.
As part of the same message, invite players to make extreme role-played statements based upon the first letter of their last name (or some other suitable randomizing strategy that should yield roughly equal-sized positive and negative groups).

Template for Round 3

RESULTS SO FAR. In Round 1 of the DEPOLARIZER game, 56 TRDEV members sent in their positions regarding the future of web-based training on a 9-point scale (where 1 was extremely pessimistic and 9 was extremely optimistic). The average of the 56 positions is 6.64.

THE WINNER IS ... In Round 2, we asked TRDEV members to predict the average. The winner of this round is Mary Lou Bade (from Adventures in Creative Teambuilding). She predicted an average rating of 6.72, missing the actual average value by a mere 0.08!

The runners-up are Norm Gustafson (who currently teaches business at high school level in CA) and Karen Jones (from Productivity, Inc). Both these players predicted an average of 6.75, missing the actual average by 0.11.

Congratulations to the winner and the runners-up!

BTW, the range of predictions was from 3.12 to 8.56.

LET'S BEGIN ROUND 3. This is the third round of the e-mail game, DEPOLARIZER.

GOOD NEWS: You may join the game even if you did not participate in the first two rounds.

WHAT DO YOU DO? In this round, you are going to be doing some role-playing.

Consider this topic: the future of web-based training. This is the same topic explored during the first two rounds.

During this round, we want you to make three or more brief statements about this topic. However, you make these statements not from your personal point of view, but from a position assigned to you based on your last name.

If your last name is begins with the letters A through L, pretend to be an extremely pessimistic individual. Write three or more reasons for your extreme pessimism about the future of web-based training. Forget your personal opinions and get into the role assigned to you.

If your last name begins with the letters M through Z, pretend to be an extremely optimistic individual. Write three or more reasons for your extreme optimism about the future of web-based training. Forget your personal opinions and get into the role assigned to you.

GRATUITOUS ADVICE. I know this assignment is going to be difficult for some of you. However, please try to put aside your personal perceptions, feelings, and opinions, and get into the role assigned to you.

HOW DO YOU WIN? You don't win during this round. But your participation is essential for the play of the next round.

DEADLINE. 11:59 PM Wednesday, June 24, 1999.

THANKS! Thank you for participating in Round 3. (Also thanks for participating in the previous rounds--if you did.)

RECAP. In case you are curious about what happened earlier, here are some details.

In this game, I invited players to indicate their position on the future of web-based training on a 9-point scale.

The rating scale ranges from 1 (extremely pessimistic) to 9 (extremely optimistic).

Here is the complete scale:

extremely pessimistic
highly pessimistic
pessimistic
slightly pessimistic
neutral
slightly optimistic
optimistic
highly optimistic
extremely optimistic

During the first round, 56 participants sent me a number that indicated their position on the rating scale. In addition, players wrote a few statements to explain why they felt that way.

During the second round, I asked players to predict the average of the positions from round 1, correct to two decimal points. 51 people participated with predictions ranging from 3.12 to 8.56.

REMEMBER, you can begin playing this game from this round--even if you did not participate during the earlier rounds.

Between Round 3 and Round 4

Collect all the extreme statements. Identify each statement as negative or positive. Save all positive statements in one file, and save negative statements in a different file.
Create a document that randomly alternates between positive and negative statements. You can post this document as a web page, or send it as an attachment to your e-mail message.
Prepare an e-mail message using the template below. Invite participants to review the extreme statements, then e-mail their revised position on the same nine-point scale used earlier.

Template for Round 4

WHAT IS THIS? This is the fourth round of the e-mail game, DEPOLARIZER.

GOOD NEWS: You may join the game even if you did not participate in the previous rounds.

WHAT HAPPENED SO FAR? In Round 1, we asked players to send us their positions concerning the future of web-based training on a nine-point scale, ranging from 1 (extremely pessimistic) to 9 (extremely optimistic). We also asked players to comment about their position, if they wished.

We took the numbers and averaged them. In Round 2, we asked TRDEV members to guess the average, which was 6.64. The winner was Mary Lou Bade, whose prediction of 6.72 missed the average by a mere 0.08.

In Round 3, we asked players to role-play. Players whose last names started with the letters A-L made three statements from an extremely pessimistic role. Players whose last names started with M-Z made three statements from an extremely optimistic role.

WHAT DO WE DO NEXT? During this round, we want you to review some of the spontaneous statements from Round 1 and the role-played statements from Round 3. Rather than clutter up your mailbox, we have put these statements on our web site at http://www.thiagi.com/webgames/trdev-depol3.html . (If you can't get to our web page, please send us a note and we will e-mail the statements to you.)

After reviewing these statements and pondering on them, please e-mail us your current position regarding the future of web-based training. Use this rating scale:

extremely pessimistic
highly pessimistic
pessimistic
slightly pessimistic
neutral
slightly optimistic
optimistic
highly optimistic
extremely optimistic

Send us a number that indicates your position on the rating scale.

DEADLINE is 11:59 p.m., Tuesday, June 29, 1999.

THANKS! Thank you for participating in Round 4. (Also thanks for participating in the previous rounds--if you did.)

Between Round 4 and Round 5

You will receive positions from different players. Copy these to a file.
Prepare a spreadsheet with participants' name (or e-mail addresses) and their positions. Find the average of these positions.
Prepare the e-mail message for Round 5, inviting players to make a prediction of the average position from Round 4. Use the template below.

Template for Round 5

DEPOLARIZER: Round 5

SUMMARY:

YOUR TASK: Predict the average position of TRDEV members who reviewed the list of optimistic and pessimistic comments about the future of web-based training.

DEADLINE: 11:59 p.m. Friday July 2, 1999.

DETAILS:

WHAT IS THIS? This is the fifth round of the e-mail game, DEPOLARIZER.

GOOD NEWS: You may join the game even if you did not participate in the previous rounds.

WHAT HAPPENED SO FAR?

ROUND 1: We asked TRDEV members to send us their positions concerning the future of web-based training on a nine-point scale, ranging from 1 (extremely pessimistic) to 9 (extremely optimistic). We also asked players to comment about their position, if they wished. 56 players sent in their positions, ranging from 3 to 8. The average value was 6.64.

ROUND 2: We asked TRDEV members to guess the average. The winner was Mary Lou Bade, whose prediction of 6.72 missed the average by a mere 0.08!

ROUND 3: We asked players to role-play. Players whose last names started with the letters A-L made statements from an extremely pessimistic role. Players whose last names started with M-Z made statements from an extremely optimistic role.

ROUND 4: We invited players to review some of the spontaneous statements from Round 1 and the role-played statements from Round 3 on a special web page at http://www.thiagi.com/webgames/trdev-depol3.html . After reviewing these statements, we invited players to send us their position on the same 9-point scale ranging from 1 (extremely pessimistic) to 9 (extremely optimistic). 14 players sent in their positions, including two who did not participate in the earlier rounds.

WHAT NEXT? Predict the average position of 9 participants who indicated (in the previous round) how they felt about the future of web training.

WANT SOME CLUES? Of the 12 players who sent us their positions during both the first round and the fourth round, only one person did not change his position. All except one of the 12 changed their position in the same direction, perhaps influenced by the statements listed in the web site at http://www.thiagi.com/webgames/trdev-depol3.html or perhaps due to fickleness. The positions taken by the two new players were more optimistic than the average.

HOW TO PLAY. Please send an e-mail note directly to thiagi@thiagi.com with your prediction, including two decimal places. Identify the subject as "TRDEV DEPOLARIZER - Round 5".

DEADLINE. 11:59 pm, Friday, July 2, 1999.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? In my next (and last posting for this game), I will announce the most accurate predictor. I will also explain the intent of this game and suggest a series of questions for a self-debrief.

THANKS! Thank you for participating in Round 5. (Also thanks for participating in the previous rounds--if you did.)

After Round 5

Save participants' names and predictions in a spreadsheet file. Create a column to show the difference between each prediction and the actual average.
Prepare an e-mail message identifying and congratulating the player who sent the most accurate prediction. Use the template given below, replacing marked phrases as before. In your message, identify runners-up, if appropriate. Provide details about the number of participants, the range of positions, and the range of predictions.

Template for Final Results

We received 14 positions in round 4. The average position was 6.28 .

For this round, we received 18 predictions of the average! Thus more people predicted the average than actually helped form it ;-).

THE WINNER IS ....

The winner is Billi Crimando. His prediction of 6.42 missed the actual average by 2.2%!

The runner-up is Michael Kemmler, whose prediction of 6.45 missed by 2.7%.

CONGRATULATIONS, Billi and Michael!

The predictions ranged from 5.55 to 7.77.

WHAT DO YOU WIN? Fame! Billi and Michael will be known forever as the most psychic members of TRDEV!

As for me, I learned a lot of new things about the future of web-based training as perceived by a select group of TRDEV members. The comments from the players (see http://www.thiagi.com/webgames/trdev-depol3.html) show a wide range of factors and opinions that influence the future of web-based training.

WHAT NEXT? I suggest that you review the list of comments and debrief yourself with these questions:

Which of these statements do I personally believe in?
Which statement appears to be the most logical one?
Which statement irritates me the most?
What additional optimistic and pessimistic statements can I add to the list?
If I were to choose three statements (that I did not contribute) that most closely represent my views, which ones would they be? If I were limited to only one of these statements, which one would I choose?
How would I rebut some of the stronger statements?
Under what situations are some of these statements valid? Invalid?
Finally, after reviewing all the statements, has my opinion shifted toward the pessimistic direction, optimistic direction, or remained where it was previously?

Perhaps you might want to share some of your reflections and insights through a post to TRDEV.

WHAT DOES THE NAME "DEPOLARIZER" SIGNIFY? This game is based on the philosophy that many issues that we treat as problems to be solved are actually polarities to be managed. The game begins by having players think about their opinions regarding a selected polarizing issue (in this case, the future of web-based training). By informing the players about the average and range of positions, we increase their awareness of the spread of opinions around the issue. By having players randomly role-play during Round 3, we encourage people to think about different points of view. By reviewing extremely polarized comments, we help players make more informed decisions. The game seems to encourage players at extremes to get closer to the average. We may not change anyone's opinion, but we increase their level of awareness about alternative points of view by playing the DEPOLARIZER game.

A LITTLE PHILOSOPHICAL MUSING. The main idea behind DEPOLARIZER is that all polarities have positive and negative attributes, advantages and disadvantages, costs and benefits, and pain and pleasure associated with them. The secret of effective polarity management is to preserve and cherish the positive aspects and reduce or remove the negative ones. The future of web-based training offers some benefits and some loses. Our goal should be to optimize the outcome. In life, "either-or" is not a useful choice. The better choice is "both-and".

THANKS to all who participated in this game.